nominee from wisconsin, vice-presidential nominees generally don't have a national impact, but political science literature 2 to 3% in their states. wisconsin was close in 2000 and 2004. it was won by al gore by 5500 votes and it was won by john kerry by 11,000 votes and both of those are significantly less, 2 to 3% of the vote so paul ryan has an effect in wisconsin sort of like 2000, 2004. could make the difference, late movement in nevada both candidates have been going there, and president obama has not been able to get 50 or above on a consistent basis, it's essentially, 48, 46, 47, 47 race on a good day for romney. in new hampshire, next-door neighbor, bush won new hampshire in 2000 and lost it in 2004 in part because new hampshiritis were comfortable from the next door state, john kerry. >> clayton: and ohio, the president has been there 22 times and romney upwards, more that that, what do you think about ohio. >> here is an interesting white board for you to look at. i thinkoee is dead even, it's a very close race. take a look the at the absentee ballot request, four years ago, 33% came